CNN’s Harry Enten Highlights a Statistical Fact!

CNN is airing a new story this morning from Harry Enten. He’s the new pollster and statistician since they got it so completely wrong in previous elections. I’ll say one thing for Harry. He’s entertaining!

Harry’s new idea this morning is that the presidential race this time is the CLOSEST ONE SINCE 1972!!! (In caps and with three exclamation points because that’s the way Harry talks.) I wasn’t quite sure what Harry was talking about. I watch a lot of TV news with the sound off. It makes more sense that way. And it’s easier to simply ignore the commercials.

I couldn’t quite remember 1972 immediately. My big concern way back then was that I had just been drafted into the Army. I did a quick search. That was the Nixon-McGovern contest. It was the biggest blowout in presidential election history. Nixon got a higher percentage of the popular vote than ever before and 49 of the 50 states..

(I voted for McGovern. He was a true intellectual and he had genuine moral compass in a world of barbarian politicians. I met him once at the ticket counter in Washington National Airport and had a short conversation to tell him that I admired him and I voted for him. Washington National is now named for the man who pioneered entertainment politics, Ronald Reagan. We now know how that turned out. We elected Nixon … a man for whom morality was just an abstract word … by a landslide.)

So, what is Harry talking about: “Closest Election Since 1972”. Checking further, it all made sense. He was talking about polling numbers. It’s the closest one in the polls in three critical states.

AH!!! The POLLS! America’s new replacement for Santa Claus and the tooth fairy.

But it does illustrate an important new development. America … as a culture, as a nation, as a people … have learned how to game the system. The polls are, well and truly bullshit. If the polls got it spectacularly wrong starting in 1972 and continuing to the present day … I think I’ll just watch the weather. They, at least, get it right some of the time and the weather lady is lots more fun to watch.

Harry and the pollsters (Hey! That could be a new singing group!) are trying hard. They have analytical ways of screening out people and carefully phrasing questions. But there is one raw fact they can’t overcome. When you talk to a pollster, you know that you are answering to influence a future event and that is the only significance your answer has. When you vote, you know it’s for keeps. So, that’s the way you answer the pollster. No matter what pollsters do, they can’t overcome that.

Polls broke my heart in 2016. I literally couldn’t even look at the news for months after that. I’m not going to let it happen again.